Friday, March 20, 2009

Conservatism's Man to Watch


If Arnold Schwarzenegger can survive economic crisis, conservatism can too

Of all the conservative leaders staring down the barrel of a deepening economic crisis, few have more reason to sweat than California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.

When Schwarzenegger won the 2003 recall election replacing then-incumbent Governor Gray Davis he did so with widespread public support for two ballot propositions. One, Proposition 57, authorized the government to borrow $15 billion to pay off operating deficits. The other, Proposition 58, required the government of California to run balanced budgets.

Schwarzenegger has already had to address significant challenges in his tenure. Perhaps the most threatening was a confrontation with California teachers wherein circumstances forced him to abandon a deal he had struck with teacher's unions.

The deal allowed Schwarzenegger to cut $2 billion from the state's education budget in order to make up for shortfalls in state revenues related to an economic downturn. In exchange, Schwarzenegger promised not to challenge a law guaranteeing annually increasing funding for kindergarten through grade 12 and to restore the money in the next year's budget.

California's economy failed to improve, forcing him to abandon his promise under peril of running a deeper deficit.

The episode led to confrontations with nurses' and firefighters' unions and halved Schwarzenegger's approval ratings.

Schwarzenegger found his political capital depleted and was unable to successfully front several other ballot measures, although he still managed to get reelected with a greater portion of the popular vote in 2006 (it helped that he didn't have to compete against another Republican).

Now, Schwarzenegger is pushing six ballot initiatives that would help him deal with California's deficit. Among other things, the initiatives would cap state spending based on the state's revenue between 1998 and 2008, institute a new rainy-day fund, and borrow against various state programs, including state lottery earnings.

Schwarzenegger is facing opposition from state legislators who worry that his measures would handcuff the state of California in addressing future needs. They also worry about the risk inherent in borrowing against future lottery earnings, considering that there are no guarantees that lottery earnings will match Schwarzenegger's borrowing.

Schwarzenegger is pushing the initiatives as part of a broad approach to balancing the budget.

"Those who say we could have balanced the budget through spending cuts alone are guilty of political cynicism at its worst. Those are not serious people," Schwarzenegger recently said. "Those who say we could balance the budget through tax increases alone reveal their total economic ignorance and lack of math skills. Their grasp of economics must come from living on a hippie commune or something like that".

Schwarzenegger's approach to balancing his state budget is a delicate balancing act, but one that keeps in mind that economic health depends on long-term balanced budgets, even if that has to be accomplished at the expense of short-term deficits.

Schwarzenegger does enjoy the luxury of billions of incoming dollars in expected federal stimulus spending, but if he can successfully launch a fiscal and economic recovery in California, he'll provide a valuable model for other conservatives to follow.

Schwarzenegger has always proven to be a flexible conservative, carefully bridging pragmatic fiscal policies with socially liberal policies such as support for stem cell research.

Schwarzenegger feels optimistic about his opportunities for success.

"Sacramento may be an immovable object, but together we can be an irresistible force," Schwarzenegger mused. "With this reform, we can regain control over our budget."

If Schwarzenegger can indeed get a handle on California's economic situation he could supplant Ronald Regan as North America's model conservative, and conservatism would be the better for it.

4 comments:

  1. Just my opinion, but I think it's bad form to compare the governator (I can't pronounce his last name, sorry)to Ronald Reagan.

    Reagan's administration was particularly notorious for his contribution to the rise of right-wing conservatism - the sort that's populated by Christian fundamentalists of Pat Robertson and Falwell's ilk. From what I've read, older generation conservatives like William Buckley and Goldwater pretty much disowned the GOP when this happened

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  2. I'm not comparing Schwarzenegger to Regan and saying they're similar. I'm comparing Schwarzenegger to Regan and saying he'd be a better model for conservatives to follow.

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  3. "Those who say we could have balanced the budget through spending cuts alone are guilty of political cynicism at its worst. Those are not serious people," Schwarzenegger recently said. "Those who say we could balance the budget through tax increases alone reveal their total economic ignorance and lack of math skills. Their grasp of economics must come from living on a hippie commune or something like that".

    *wipes away another tear*

    That was beautiful. Too bad he can't run for President.

    Reagan's administration was particularly notorious for his contribution to the rise of right-wing conservatism - the sort that's populated by Christian fundamentalists of Pat Robertson and Falwell's ilk. From what I've read, older generation conservatives like William Buckley and Goldwater pretty much disowned the GOP when this happened.

    This strongly reminds me of what happened with the Canadian conservative movement in the 1980s after Brian Mulroney was elected, which was ironically around the same time that Thatcher and Reagan came to power in their own countries-the old guard conservatives largely being shunted aside by the new Milton Friedman-esque conservative movement.

    The historical record plainly shows, too, that Canadian conservatives have had no qualms about intervening in society and the economy, with guys ranging from Macdonald to Bennett to Borden to Diefenbaker to Lougheed to Stanfield all making reforms, hiking social spending, actively seeking new trade opportunities, or otherwise stepping in to complement the activities of the free market.

    Makes you wonder how any of them would fare if they were running for office today-would they be dismissed as Red Tories, or even as Liberals?

    There seems to be another sea change occurring today in conservative circles, with the likes of Meaghan McCain and the Governator running up against the likes of Ann Coulter and Rush Limbaugh in determining where the American conservative movement goes next.

    It's hard to tell if something similar will occur in Canada, although it might-I've come across one or two columns bitterly criticizing Harper for shifting more to the center (and that's supposed to be a bad thing?), and I've long been convinced that the basis for the support the current Conservative government enjoys from Canadians is because of its skilful handling of the bread-and-butter business of Parliament, and passing various useful reforms in fields like immigration, law enforcement, and the military, as opposed to any ideological program of broad and deep tax and spending cuts.

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  4. I agree. Both the Republican party and conservatism -- both in America and elsewhere -- need people like Schwarzenegger and John and Meghan McCain.

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